China and East Asia

November 2002
Political Islam in Southeast Asia
by Scott B. MacDonald and Jonathan Lemco
"Significant differences exist between the Islamic revivalist movements looking to cultural and spiritual renewal that have swept Southeast Asia in recent years and transnational terrorist networks. Between these two extremes are political parties and groups seeking greater autonomy or secession of predominantly Islamic regions."or secession of predominantly Islamic regions."

September 2002
Sino-American Relations since September 11: Can the New Stability Last?
by David Shambaugh
"Although Taiwan, missile proliferation, missile defense, and the American military presence in Asia and Central Asia have the potential to upset Sino-American relations over the next year, the current stability is reason for cautious optimism. . . . Neither country needs or seeks a deterioration of relations or a return to the roller coaster of the 1990s. Indeed, both are otherwise preoccupied."

September 2002
China's New Leadership: The Challenges to the Politics of Muddling Through
by Tony Saich
"Whoever succeeds [Jiang Zemin as general secretary] will take almost a full term to consolidate his position. . . . Whether this politics of muddling through will be sufficient for the next period is debatable-the leadership might be pressured to take a more dynamic approach."

September 2002
Waiting for China's Lech Walesa
by Jeffrey N. Wasserstrom
"Has the Chinese body politic finally been infected by what Beijing officials have sometimes dubbed the 'Polish disease' . . . ? Could China's 2002 turn out to be like Poland's 1981, a turning-point year when cleansing fevers (to invert the medical metaphor) began to take effect?"

September 2002
China's War on "Cults"
by Jason Kindopp
"China's leaders are well aware of the dangers of precipitating a Falun Gong-style campaign against another religious group, and appear eager to avoid doing so. Stung by the Falun Gong's tenacity and exhausted by the extraordinary measures required to flog its adherents into submission, they no longer have any illusions about the difficulty of wiping out religious groups that specialize in producing righteous martyrs. . . ."

September 2002
Xinjiang: China's Future West Bank?
by Dru Gladney
"Not unlike Hong Kong (which under the one-country, two-systems formula continues to fly its own flag), the unique situation in Xinjiang calls for dramatic and creative solutions. The future of this region, which the American sinologist Owen Lattimore once called the 'pivot of Asia,' depends on it."

September 2002
Quiet Struggle in the East China Sea
by Selig S. Harrison
"Growing attention has been devoted in recent years to projected oil and gas pipelines that would link Russian gas fields in eastern Siberia and Sakhalin Island to China, Japan, and the two Koreas. By contrast, there is little awareness of the high economic and political stakes involved in the quiet struggle now unfolding in Northeast Asia over seabed petroleum resources, especially the conflict between China and Japan over the East China Sea."

September 2002
China and North Korea: The Close but Uncomfortable Relationship
by Andrew Scobell
"Many in Beijing would like to see the Pyongyang regime survive indefinitely, and the Chinese are doing what they can to prop it up." But China would also like to see "gradual (not dramatic) change in North Korea. It hopes to nurture the emergence of a reform-minded North Korea. . . . How realistic this goal is and how far Beijing is willing to pursue it remain unclear."

September 2002
China and Pakistan: Strains in the Relationship
by Devin T. Hagerty
Although the American war on terrorism has altered the regional landscape, "China and Pakistan continue to derive substantial value from their close relationship. For Islamabad, Beijing remains its most steadfast friend in international affairs. United States interest in Pakistan waxes and wanes, but China has proved itself to be in Pakistan's corner over the long haul."

September 2002
Sino-Japanese Relations: Competition and Cooperation
by Jonathan Lemco and Scott B. MacDonald
"Many analysts choose to focus on the points of contention between the Asian giants. This is perfectly understandable, for China's industries will grow and compete with Japan's worldwide, and Japan's more assertive military will complicate China's foreign policy goals. But the tensions are only half the story."

April 2002
Sunset for Kim Dae-jung's Sunshine Policy?
by Manwoo Lee
"Although Kim Dae-jung's sunshine policy has been buffeted by political turbulence, it is not dead; his successor can only modify his policy, not abandon it altogether."

April 2002
Japan's Slow-Moving Economic Avalanche
by Scott B. MacDonald and Jonathan Lemco
"For now Japan is too integrated into the world financial system and too big to fail. . . . But a time of reckoning is coming if changes are not made."

April 2002
Post-Crisis Asia: Economic Recovery and the Challenges Ahead
by Shalendra D. Sharma
Almost all the East Asian economies have recaptured the economic momentum disrupted by the 1997 financial crisis in the region. Although that momentum was slowed with the global economic downturn in 2001, the process of financial and corporate rebuilding and restructuring in response to the crisis has not.

September 2001
Cracks in the Wall: China's Eroding Coercive State
by Murray Scot Tanner
China's coercive system still shows a capacity to suppress individuals deemed threatening to the state. Beneath the surface, this system is facing unprecedented challenges to central control, effectiveness, and discipline, all of which could produce a growing crisis of governability for Beijing.

September 2001
China as Number One
by Soong-Bum Ahn
The inferred assumption in most American scenarios is one in which a dominant China is a threat to its neighbors and the United States. Yet what if China acts as a benevolent hegemon, or at least a benign one?

September 2001
The United States and China: Rhetoric and Reality
by David Bachman
The rhetoric of the Bush administration can be seen as part of the "positioning" process as one party replaces the other in the presidency, working hard to show it is breaking with the past before it moves in the direction of the prior administration. But such a sanguine conclusion appears premature.

September 2001
Human Rights and the Lessons of History
by Jeffrey N. Wasserstrom
When attempting to bring pressure on Beijing, the United States should stop using vague universal standards or comparisons with the contemporary United States. Washington's criticisms of the Chinese Communist Party should instead build on Beijing's own claims about history and politics.

September 2001
China's Media: Between Politics and the Market
by Judy Polumbaum
Were it not for the shifting sands into which the bold and the hapless alike sometimes fall, the persistence of official rhetoric portraying media as the standard-bearer of correct guidance and orientation would seem laughable. At the least it is irreversibly anachronistic.

September 2001
Tibet: Myths and Realities
by Barry Sautman
As the myths surrounding the Tibetan cause are challenged by scholars, emigre leaders may reconsider their claim that an independent Tibet is inevitable. And China's leaders may confront the self-delusion that because the Tibet question will end with the Dalai Lama, a compromise settlement is unnecessary.

September 2001
Hong Kong: Still "One Country, Two Systems"?
by Craig N. Canning
After four years of Hong Kong self-rule, the overriding question remains whether the "one country, two systems" experiment is working. So far the answer is yes-with some qualification.