China and East Asia

September 2005
China’s New Exchange Rate Regime
by BARRY EICHENGREEN
"China's exchange rate system is a work in progress. Notwithstanding all the attention attracted by the dramatic decisions this July, that process has only started."

September 2005
Repairing China’s Social Safety Net
by ATHAR HUSSAIN
"Recent years have seen a marked shift away from single-minded emphasis on economic growth toward the development of a 'harmonious society.' Progress in improving China's social security system probably will be much quicker over the next 20 years than in the previous 20, but reform will still be piecemeal."

September 2005
Made in the P.R.C.: China's Consumer Revolution
by AMY HANSER
"Although the market and opportunities for consumption seem to offer a counterbalance to the government's authoritarian powers, many Chinese are ambivalent about the forces of Westernization and marketization and the rapidly growing gap between rich and poor."

September 2005
China’s Environmental Challenge
by ELIZABETH ECONOMY
"Environmental degradation and pollution constrain economic growth, contribute to large-scale migration, harm public health, and engender social unrest. Moreover, there is the potential . . . for the environment to serve as a locus for broader political discontent and further political reforms."

September 2005
Viva Macao?
by JOSHUA KURLANTZICK
"The influx of investment in gambling is powering Macao's growth, and Beijing thus far has tolerated the casino boom. In the longer term, however, China could enact policies that would stunt Macao's gambling industry and potentially burst the enclave's economic success."

September 2005
The Fallout of a Nuclear North Korea
by ANDREW SCOBELL and MICHAEL R. CHAMBERS
"The nuclearization of North Korea will have a profound impact on Northeast Asia. If Pyongyang opts for crash nuclearization through a weapon test, that could bring the countries of the region together in opposition. This reaction is far from assured, however . . . ."

April 2005
Nuclear Asia's Challenges
by Dinshaw Mistry
The middle-term challenges of averting a nuclear arms race in Asia are closely linked to the more immediate concern of reversing proliferation in North Korea.

March 2005
Indonesia after the Tsunami
by Edward Aspinall
"The post-tsunami relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction efforts . . . pose enormous challenges for a new government that inherits, and is partly a product of, a ramshackle and ineffective state apparatus."

March 2005
Thailand's Thaksin to the Rescue
by Amy Kazmin
"Before the killer wave, the campaign had been heating up with increasing public debate about Thaksin's . . . authoritarian style and apparent contempt for democratic principles. After the tsunami, Thais rallied behind their leader."

March 2005
Laos: Still Communist after All These Years
by Joshua Kurlantzick
"Throughout the repression and the economic backsliding, most countries in the West have said little about Laos, even as they decry similar problems in Burma and Tibet and other regions of the world."

March 2005
Indonesia after the Tsunami
by Sumit Ganguly
"Can the Bush administration successfully set aside its differences with India and build on the emerging commonalities of interest?"

March 2005
Australia's Emerging Global Role
by Allan Gyngell
"Where once Australians felt remote from global power, they now find themselves closer to it."

September 2004
China and Europe: The Emerging Axis
by David Shambaugh
"The China-Europe relationship will continue to grow and develop at a steady pace. Over time it will become a new axis in world affairs, and will serve as a source of stability in a volatile world."

September 2004
Beijing's Ambivalent Reformers
by Bruce J. Dickson
"The party has implemented various modest reforms in recent years. Some are designed to allow the party to implement its policy agenda more efficiently. Others aim to make it more responsive to a changing society, or at least to appear so. All are designed to perpetuate the Communist Party's rule, not necessarily to make China more democratic."

September 2004
The Latin Americanization of China?
by George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham
Land reforms aimed at raising rural incomes and promoting urbanization could accelerate the crisis already building in China's cities. If urban legal and social reforms fail to keep pace, China could face intensifying conflict between a burgeoning class of have-nots and an entitled minority, a consolidated alliance between political leaders and business and social elites, and a host of other social and political ills familiar to many Latin American states.

September 2004
Repression and Revolt in China’s Wild West
by Joshua Kurlantzick
"A struggle looms within Xinjiang's Uighur population between a no-holds-barred, more violent resistance to Beijing and a more assimilationist, peaceful approach that hopes to win greater political autonomy and economic rights. Unfortunately, too often both Beijing's and Western nations' policies toward Xinjiang only strengthen the hard-liners."

September 2004
The Mao Industry
by Michael Dutton
"One can indeed say that political reform has been visited upon China. It came, however, not in the form of an institutional transformation of the state-based political system . . . but in a far subtler yet profoundly life-transforming manner. No longer are people enthralled by the political, or even intimidated by it."

September 2004
North Korea's Nuclear Politics
by Kongdan Oh and Ralph C. Hassig
"Blessed with enormous military and economic power, Americans expect to find quick and effective solutions to whatever crises they encounter. For North Korea's Kim Jong-il, however, generating one crisis after another may be the best way to stay in power."

September 2004
Japan: America's New South Korea?
by James E. Auer and Robyn Lim
"There are signs that Japan will assume the geostrategic role of the 'new South Korea'-a leverage point against China. Missile defense in particular will transform the us-Japan relationship into a 'normal' alliance, taking it in directions not hitherto contemplated."

September 2004
Asia in the Balance: America and China's "Peaceful Rise"
by Robert Sutter
"America's strengths in Asia remain formidable. . . . Chinese leaders seem to understand this in their acceptance of us leadership in Asian and world affairs, as part of a long-term strategy to develop 'peacefully' without upsetting the United States."