Europe
March 1998

March Article Abstracts

Title: Serbian Roulette
Author: Obrad Kesic
"Milosevic and his leftist coalition have closed the door on any significant opportunity for compromise. They live with the illusion that they can continue to juggle all of Serbia's problems without having one of them come crashing down around their heads. . . As the political and economic crises intensify, Milosevic will have to increase repression or allow greater liberalization. Either way he will be forced to make a move that will accelerate his downfall."

Title: Whose Bosnia? The Politics of Nation Building
Author: Lenard J. Cohen
"For the moment, the United States and the international community have offered Bosnia a lease on life, a respite from violence, and a schema for future development. But the long-term survival of Bosnia, in its Dayton configuration, is still very much in doubt. Political cultures can sometimes change quickly, but in the current contest between nato-proclaimed democratic norms on the one side, and rival Balkan nationalist ideologies on the other, it is too early to declare a winner."

Title: The Slovenian Success Story
Author: Sabrina P. Ramet
"In economic, diplomatic, and even political terms, Slovenia has experienced a relatively smooth transition. But Slovenia's path is not free of snares and obstacles, including a surge in xenophobic intolerance."

Title: Destiny on Hold: Macedonia and the Dangers of Ethnic Discord
Author: Duncan Perry
"Recent events in both Macedonia and Yugoslavia point to the possibility of a regional interethnic crisis in the offing. Should there be trouble, it could bring the reality of Balkan war to Macedonia. . . The West must be prepared to take action if required, and with a deliberate and forceful stride, not a shuffle as it did in Bosnia."

Title: Upheaval in Albania
Author: Fabian Schmidt
"The March 1997 crisis in Albania was not only the result of the collapse of pyramid investment schemes; it also stemmed from the failure to introduce functioning, independent, democratic and legal institutions. . . Although pyramid schemes appeared in other postcommunist countries, only in Albania did their rise and fall have such devastating effects."

Title: The Case against NATO Expansion
Author: Michael Mandelbaum
The United States Senate is about to consider whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should expand its membership to include the Eastern European nations of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. Is it a "bad idea whose time has come," as some have put it? The following edited transcript of a January 1998 presentation by a group of leading security specialists makes the case that the answer is no.